The federal government finally put together a budget, if you can call it that. Our Prime Minister warned us we were going to have to ‘make sacrifices’ while the talking heads continue call every aspect of our current economy a ‘crisis’. Sometimes even an ‘unprecedented crisis’. However, despite what they want you to believe, the economic disaster we are in is not a crisis. It is a strategic means to an end called managed decline.

Managed decline was originally a business term used to describe slowing things down in a managed way to mitigate loss and harm while trying to save as much as possible. When it comes to government, the definition is exactly the opposite. Policies are designed and actions taken that will lead to a deterioration of economic and social conditions in order to inflict as much financial pain and social chaos as possible. Slowing productivity to a crawl, increasing taxes, and over-regulating any possible growth and innovation is how it is done.

Sound familiar?  

It began with moving the goal posts for pipeline projects under the guise of environment, social, and governance; ESG for short. On the surface it doesn’t sound so evil, but it was and still is.

‘E’ is all about net-zero, carbon neutral, renewable energy. Bills C-48 and 69 come to mind. Given our provinces global greenhouse gas emissions amount to 0.5%, getting to zero would literally mean shutting Albertans down.  

‘S’ is all about giving someone a job who does not qualify for the job but they check a box (or 2 or 3) and help fill a quota. Throwing meritocracy out the window, these social policies are designed to fit hand in glove with DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion), which not only stalls growth and production, it is an HR nightmare.

‘G’ focuses on executive leadership and basically how the company is structured. What it really means is the CEO and his team had better tow the party line and abide by whatever the government throws their way, or else. In short, via policy and legislation, the government is in charge of all future planning with a little built in self-censoring.

When the government takes over planning to become the ‘central planner’ that is not good and our federal government has embraced it with full force. They decide what comes in, what goes out, what gets built, and what gets shut down. This is why we have seen an exodus of investment dollars. That the federal government does not want another pipeline to the west coast is also not surprising. They bought one and do not want competition. As central planner, there is also a move toward nationalizing everything possible. Today they call it subsidies and capital investment; tomorrow they will call it nationally owned.  

As if that were not enough, the federal government took the added step of flooding us with immigrants and refugees from carefully chosen countries. Some came in dressed as foreign students or temporary foreign workers. Others just came. This week we learned that upon arrival, all claimants have to do is download an app, identify as a refugee, and come on in. Why does this matter? Because our already strained resources, including tax dollars, can not sustain this. Not to mention we do not even know who these people are!   

Managed decline and central planning are the friend of Ottawa and enemy of Alberta. What seems to go unnoticed is how resilient Albertans have been through it all, which is both good and bad. It is good because it confirms our strength and resolve. It is bad because that strength and resolve have worked against us. Our resiliency is causing us to take longer to hit the bottom, making it hard for many to see what is actually happening. 

The federal government is using managed decline to usher in a fascist state. Hence the term ‘nation building’, and that is not good.

Sometime in the Spring, we are going to have an opportunity, very likely our ONLY opportunity, to vote our way out of this.

We can't screw this up.  

For over twenty years buying and selling rental properties has been my jam. Like any business, there are two facets to real estate investing: money and people. The hardest lesson I had to learn was logic and common sense have to override sentiment. As the old saying goes: it’s not personal, it’s just business. The second hardest lesson is, when negotiating a deal, always be willing to walk away.

Our grievances with Ottawa predate us becoming a province. Neither Alberta nor Saskatchewan negotiated our way in to Confederation, we were colonized and told this is how it is going to be. One could argue that, decades later, Premier Lougheed agreed to the 1982 Constitution by signing it (interestingly, Quebec did not) and there is merit to that. Though it could also be argued that our Premier was strong armed more so than in agreement. He did not create the first iteration of the Alberta Bill of Rights along with the Heritage Trust Fund shortly thereafter for no reason.

The good news is there is a mechanism within the Constitution to renegotiate Confederation. Many Albertans are hopeful that our fellow provinces will come to the table, ready to collaborate and reach a new deal. One that includes less equalization, more provincial autonomy, and all-around freedom for every province to make their own decisions across the county. It does sound quite nice.

Looking at the map below, we see both the Senate seats (white numbers) and House of Commons seats (black numbers) in each province. To open up the Constitution we need seven provinces and 50% of the population to agree. Told we have friends and allies across the county, which ones can we confidently expect to meet us at the table to renegotiate a better deal with Alberta? And the Territories don’t count. 

Looking at the numbers, using logic and plain old common sense, two realities become obvious. The first is, Alberta does not have a lot of political power within Confederation. Even as a ‘western block’ there is no possibility of moving the needle. The second is, we do not have a lot of allies either. The eastern provinces are not going to willing to give up those seats in Parliament to make things fair and equitable for Alberta or any of our neighboring western provinces.  

With these facts in mind, and they are facts, not conjecture, let’s look at our greatest complaint. Here is a map showing the latest equalization payouts.

Though the intent is to make things ‘equal’, there is nothing equal about it. Especially when we learn that the Prime Minister who changed the equalization formula to include 50% of our resource revenues but not Quebec’s was Harper. And he did so for eastern votes.

In 1904, the year before we became a province, the Minister of the Interior, Sir Clifford Sifton was at a meeting in Winnipeg. It was there he said, “We desire, all patriotic Canadians desire, that the great trade of the Prairie shall go to enrich our own people in the East, to build up the factories and the workshops of Eastern Canada and contribute in every way to its prosperity.”

When Angela Tabak and I are giving this presentation, this is usually the part where we hear crickets. It is also the hardest because this is when our fellow Albertans realize that this is how Confederation was designed. For the East, it has always been about money. Our money. For us, it has always been about people. The fact that our own country purposely keeps Albertans under foot is a hard pill to swallow.

As more and more Albertans come to terms with the truth, the independence movement keeps growing. As a result, the vitriol coming at us from the East, particularly over these last several months, has been shocking. There is no question how they feel and what they think of us. Which confirms, sadly, that our fellow Canadians have no desire to negotiate any sort of ‘fair deal’. While it is hurtful, we need to keep our emotions in check and use logic and common sense to guide us. Looking at this from a business perspective, and we have to, Albertans are left with two options. Either we stay with the status quo and the great trade of the prairie continues to enrich the east or, we put our own people first, and walk away.

It is time to tell the rest of Canada it’s not personal, it’s just business.

Fellow Albertans, it’s time for a referendum on independence.  

Politics is messy and, depending how much you want to get involved, it can be downright ugly.

Though there are exceptions, Albertans don’t tend to have a lot of bandwidth when it comes to federal politics. Ottawa is thousands of km’s away and our mere 33 seats out of 334 hardly amounts to a hill of beans. Given Canada’s Parliament is riddled with one scandal after another, it’s also exhausting and depressing.  

From the beginning, our place in Confederation has been contentious. In the 1980’s it came to a head and the west wanted out. It was looking like the Alberta separatists of that generation were gaining some significant steam. If something wasn’t done, it was going to get ugly. A few Alberta federalists got together and came up with a plan. Maybe a western based conservative party would help give the west a voice in Parliament. In 1987, the Reform Party of Canada was born with Preston Manning as its leader. Stephen Harper worked hard on the project as well and, in 1993 they won 52 seats. The west was in but it didn’t take long for The Reform Party to have aspirations of winning government. That can’t happen without eastern votes so, in 2000, the name was changed to the Canadian Alliance Party with Stephen Harper at the helm.

Now there were two national conservative parties with seats in the House of Commons, the Canadian Alliance Party and the Progressive Conservative Party. In 2003, ‘unite the right’ negotiations were had and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) was born with Harper as the Leader. So much for a western block.  

While all of that was going on federally, Ralph Klein became our premier in 1992 and really shook things up. Determined to run the province like a business, he had a mission to get us out of debt and did. Klein was also no slouch when it came to standing up to Ottawa or the anti oil and gas campaigns. Remember in 2002, when environmentalist Stephen Guilbeau trespassed onto the Premiers private property in an attempt to illegally install solar panels? Jerk.

Anyway, back in Ottawa, Calgary’s own Stephen Harper led the CPC to form a minority government in early 2006. The ‘west was in’ again but there was just one problem. A politically strong Alberta is not good for Ottawa. It’s rumored Premier Klien was paid a visit and encouraged to retire. In December of that same year, Ed Stelmach was elected the new leader.

Premier Stelmach didn’t have the same charisma or tenacity Ralph did. Now that Albertans saw what true conservatism could accomplish, we wanted more. But that was going to take someone really ready to stand up to Ottawa. Stelmach tried, but decided to step down as leader and let another take on the challenge. This is also when Danielle Smith was helping to put the Wildrose Party on the map.

From 2011-14 Alison Reford was our Premier. Prior to becoming an MLA, she advised various federal politicians and even worked for the UN at one time. Perhaps it was that experience that caused her to make the mistakes she did. Never before nor since, have we seen a Premier who felt so entitled to have anything and everything she wanted. Her spending scandals are so legendary that if she did actually do anything good for Albertans, nobody remembers.

After resigning in disgrace, Redford stayed on the down low for a while in Palm Springs, and eventually took a job with the World Bank in partnership with Afghanistan.

A former federal politician, Jim Prentice then came out of ‘retirement’ to lead the PC’s, which made him Premier in 2014. His arrogance helped the Wildrose Party gain momentum as the Official Opposition, and those in Ottawa were taking notice. Remember, a politically strong Alberta isn’t good for Ottawa.

With the help of some of his friends, including Preston Manning, Prentice convinced a number of Wildrosers to cross the floor, including their leader, Danielle Smith. Albertans were gob smacked and furious. Adding insult to political injury, before the remaining Wildrosers had a chance to regroup, in May of 2015, Prentice called a snap election. Albertans sent a message via the ballot box. Unfortunately, too many either cast a protest vote for the NDP or simply stayed home in frustration that year. Some say we split the vote and that’s true in some ridings though not all. At the end of the day, we voted the conservatives out which put the Notley NDP’s in.    

A dream come true, the NDP had no idea what to do, so they got to work destroying the province. Five months later, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals formed government and Albertans were catapulted into a politically induced recession. A mass exodus resulted and those remaining began talking about independence and separation louder than ever before. Conservatives in Ottawa were freaking out. While a politically strong Alberta isn’t good for Ottawa, Alberta’s independence from Ottawa would be catastrophic. In their eyes, anyway. The Conservatives, both provincial and federal, needed to come up with a plan.

The front runner for leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada at the time was Jason Kenney but, desperate times call for desperate measures. Chosen to take a short hiatus from federal politics, Kenney was sent on a mission to ‘save’ Alberta. He could return to federal politics later, and besides, what better platform could one ask for. In 2017, Kenney won the leadership of the Progressive Conservatives. Taking a page out of the federal conservative playbook from decades prior, ‘unite the right’ talks began. The Wildrose, now led by Brian Jean, joined forces with the PC’s and the United Conservative Party of Alberta was the result. The details of how it all went down aren’t without controversy, including how Kenney won the Leadership. In April, 2019, many Albertans held their nose while voting and Kenney became Premier.   

Six months later, the Trudeau Liberals won the federal election again. Despite having the UCP government, Albertans knew that wasn’t enough and the independence movement exploded. Never before had it been so tangible and this is where it gets a little crazy. Wexit became a household name and before long the Wildrose Independence Party (not to be confused with the original Wildrose party) was gaining momentum across the province. Polls showed support had passed the tipping point, reaching 25% support for the party and even higher than that for independence. Conservative parties, both provincially and federally but mostly federally, were freaking out. This was not how things were supposed to go and Kenney really had his work cut out for him now.

What is the best way to kill a movement? Attack it from within. And that’s what happened. It wouldn’t be long before the Wildrose Independence Party (WIPA) spiraled creating a vacuum. Part of the WIPA diaspora created the Unity Project and then changed its name to the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP). The independence movement and appetite for it continued to grow despite the independence parties gasping for air.  

Kenney continued to make mistake after mistake after mistake and Albertans were not happy with the UCP at all. He had failed his mission. Capitalizing on this emotion, Take Back Alberta showed up to help mobilize Albertans and many came together to bring about change in the UCP leadership. With the Alberta Sovereignty Act in hand, Danielle Smith became our Premier. Singing a few good lines from the Separatist songbook, UCP membership and support was growing and attendance at the next AGM was record breaking.

This was great for Albertans but, remember, a politically strong Alberta isn’t good for Ottawa.

Our Premier stood even stronger and began pushing back harder against Ottawa. Travelling to other countries, she put Alberta on the map including attending COP28. Talk continued about having our own police force and pension and as the months went on even more separatists joined the UCP, including yours truly.

Maybe because the acronym was the same, I’m not sure, but the Alberta Prosperity Project narrowed its focus to sharing the advantages of having an Alberta Pension Plan and started touring the province to educate the people. Take Back Alberta has had a few ups and downs but now encourages Albertans to concentrate on Municipal and School Board elections. Give credit where it’s due. These political organizations have managed a great accomplishment. Albertans are paying attention, getting involved, and more are acknowledging Confederation isn’t what it seems.

As we’ve seen, every time Albertans mobilize to do something that is good for us, forces come in to sabotage. Trojan horses and wolves in sheep’s clothing are the tried-and-true method. The horses are usually Albertans with ties to Ottawa. Prentice, Manning, Harper, and Kenney are all examples. The wolves are usually Albertans who infiltrate the various grassroots political movements after being promised some pie in the sky reward.  

Looking back to when Danielle Smith was leader of the Wildrose Party in 2014, the conservative movement was strong and the next provincial election was hers to win. However, Premier Prentice and Preston Manning, both federalists, talked her into a terrible decision that put Albertans and Alberta into a tailspin. Was that tailspin on purpose? I think so.

Fast forward to today with Smith as Premier, Alberta has been doing pretty darn good and feeling rather scrappy toward Ottawa. We should have known an attack was coming but instead let our guard down.

While at an event recently, our Premier ran into Preston Manning and Stephen Harper. Very shortly after, out of nowhere, former Premier Alison Redford is handed a board position. Albertans have long memories. We have forgiven Danielle. We have not forgiven Alison. This wasn’t a good move.

Almost to the day of this announcement, also out of nowhere, the 1905 Committee appears. Renaming one of Wexit Alberta’s old Facebook pages to help get its message out, part of that message is questioning our Premier’s decisions and track record.

Is this a coincidence? Whether it is or it isn’t, there’s no denying it follows the pattern. Alberta starts doing well (this time really well), conservatives in Ottawa get nervous, and suddenly there’s mayhem. It’s hard not to wonder who is bankrolling these various ‘grassroots’ political organizations that tend to fizzle out once the Alberta dust up settles.

Now that we’ve identified the problem, how do we solve it? Albertans clearly have no appetite to simply fall back in line with whatever the federal conservative party wants us to do. Blowing up a provincial party over a leaders’ bad decisions won’t get us anywhere. So, now what? We go with what we know works.  

If the Premier of Alberta isn’t doing his/her job, then either that leader needs to either get back to the business of doing what’s right for Albertans despite any and all opposition from Ottawa, or, we need to identify someone else who will. That’s the first thing. The second is, we do what we have always done when there’s a need or a crisis. We come together. So what if a politically strong Alberta isn’t good for Ottawa. That’s their problem. What we can’t do is allow trojan horses or wolves in sheep’s clothing to divide us again. Instead, let’s use this time to unite and make Alberta so politically strong, Ottawa can do nothing about it.  

Hope to see you at the AGM.