The federal government finally put together a budget, if you can call it that. Our Prime Minister warned us we were going to have to ‘make sacrifices’ while the talking heads continue call every aspect of our current economy a ‘crisis’. Sometimes even an ‘unprecedented crisis’. However, despite what they want you to believe, the economic disaster we are in is not a crisis. It is a strategic means to an end called managed decline.

Managed decline was originally a business term used to describe slowing things down in a managed way to mitigate loss and harm while trying to save as much as possible. When it comes to government, the definition is exactly the opposite. Policies are designed and actions taken that will lead to a deterioration of economic and social conditions in order to inflict as much financial pain and social chaos as possible. Slowing productivity to a crawl, increasing taxes, and over-regulating any possible growth and innovation is how it is done.

Sound familiar?  

It began with moving the goal posts for pipeline projects under the guise of environment, social, and governance; ESG for short. On the surface it doesn’t sound so evil, but it was and still is.

‘E’ is all about net-zero, carbon neutral, renewable energy. Bills C-48 and 69 come to mind. Given our provinces global greenhouse gas emissions amount to 0.5%, getting to zero would literally mean shutting Albertans down.  

‘S’ is all about giving someone a job who does not qualify for the job but they check a box (or 2 or 3) and help fill a quota. Throwing meritocracy out the window, these social policies are designed to fit hand in glove with DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion), which not only stalls growth and production, it is an HR nightmare.

‘G’ focuses on executive leadership and basically how the company is structured. What it really means is the CEO and his team had better tow the party line and abide by whatever the government throws their way, or else. In short, via policy and legislation, the government is in charge of all future planning with a little built in self-censoring.

When the government takes over planning to become the ‘central planner’ that is not good and our federal government has embraced it with full force. They decide what comes in, what goes out, what gets built, and what gets shut down. This is why we have seen an exodus of investment dollars. That the federal government does not want another pipeline to the west coast is also not surprising. They bought one and do not want competition. As central planner, there is also a move toward nationalizing everything possible. Today they call it subsidies and capital investment; tomorrow they will call it nationally owned.  

As if that were not enough, the federal government took the added step of flooding us with immigrants and refugees from carefully chosen countries. Some came in dressed as foreign students or temporary foreign workers. Others just came. This week we learned that upon arrival, all claimants have to do is download an app, identify as a refugee, and come on in. Why does this matter? Because our already strained resources, including tax dollars, can not sustain this. Not to mention we do not even know who these people are!   

Managed decline and central planning are the friend of Ottawa and enemy of Alberta. What seems to go unnoticed is how resilient Albertans have been through it all, which is both good and bad. It is good because it confirms our strength and resolve. It is bad because that strength and resolve have worked against us. Our resiliency is causing us to take longer to hit the bottom, making it hard for many to see what is actually happening. 

The federal government is using managed decline to usher in a fascist state. Hence the term ‘nation building’, and that is not good.

Sometime in the Spring, we are going to have an opportunity, very likely our ONLY opportunity, to vote our way out of this.

We can't screw this up.  

Good News!!! The early majority are ready and the late majority are now exploring the idea. How do I know this? Have I got a story for you!

Amongst the crowd at a recent APP event was a man with questions. He found some answers but came away wanting more information and an idea as to how to get it. A friend introduced us, the following week he held a public event, and I was invited to be one of the presenters. The topic: should we stay or should we go.

Because it is imperative to meet people where they are at, I chatted extensively with my host before the event in order to know my audience and come prepared. Very much on the left side of the political spectrum, as were those he was inviting, it only made sense to changed up my presentation a bit to suit their thought process and speak to what is important to them. My hope was the already converted in attendance would find the information useful as well.

The coin was tossed and I got to present first.

While describing how the Westminster System is designed, two young men became so offended they grabbed their backpacks and left. The truth can be uncomfortable. Especially when it goes against everything you were taught, or weren’t taught but believed. Unfortunately, the offenses didn’t stop there.

With slides to confirm facts, I pointed out that Alberta’s total global greenhouse gas emissions amount to 0.5%. That same slide listed the top ten global emitters with Canada in #11 place at 1.41%. Suggesting we could double production, raising our provinces GHG emissions to just 1% (which is still very negligible on a global scale), we could then sell that increased production to China, the US, and India so they wouldn’t need to use coal anymore. The realized benefit would be a significant decrease in their GHG emissions by multiple percents and we could have better schools and hospitals. A win-win.

There were definitely skeptics in the front row, but I had their attention.

Next stop, Germany.

Germany was in trouble because it went ‘green’ too quick with no plan should things go wrong, and go wrong it did. Pointing out our Prime Minister declared there was ‘no business case’ to help our fellow man in their greatest time of need touched a nerve or two.

It felt like we were getting somewhere so I tried to bring it all together.

Given our own country has landlocked us via bills 48 and 69, the only way we could possibly help the environment and those who desperately need what we have is to remove ourselves from Confederation. Though this very tough crowd wasn’t happy with that suggestion, they couldn’t argue it either.

In what is becoming the norm, no one was willing to represent the ‘stay’ side. To the hosts credit, rather than not have the event, he took the role on himself which was no small task. His daily focus is environmentalism, not Alberta secession. Being very new to the independence conversation, he admitted he did not have enough time to prepare and, therefore, not a lot to share but would do his best. Frankly, he deserves a standing ovation for that.  

Well into the evening now, the question of ‘why stay’ remained unanswered. A gentleman from the crowd offered to give it a go and this was my favorite part of the evening. Bravely and valiantly, he tried hard to come up with reasons but couldn’t, and finally admitted so. Struggling to reconcile that in his own mind, I asked him if we could continue talking it through together in front of everyone. Maybe collectively we could come up with at least one reason to stay. He graciously agreed and we had a lovely back and forth that quickly became the best conversation I have ever had on the subject. Respectful, cordial, it was wonderful. We shook hands after and chatted again when the event was over. 

The group conversation moved to equalization payments. We talked about how they work and who was going to pay the bills if our oil and gas stayed in the ground (spoiler alert… nobody). We also discussed the trials and tribulations around the social state of the country. Oddly enough, despite being on opposite sides of the Alberta Independence discussion, I realized there was more common ground between us than not. For example:

1)      Very few people think Confederation actually works well. It really is the elephant in the room.

2)      No one can give a reason as to why we should stay or how we can make things better.

3)      The unknowns are the deterrent. Confused minds can’t/won’t make a decision which is why some choose to ignore the issue.  

4)      That said, most reasonable people really do want to talk about it. What they don’t want is confrontation.

To that last point, within the independence movement are some who… how do I say this nicely… can be a little too emotive while trying to communicate their argument. Civil conversations turn into a boisterous homily about who is ‘right’, followed by accusatory statements flying in all directions, and it’s just ugly. Unfortunately, that happened at this event providing a perfect public display of how conservatives tend to ‘eat our own’. This was not lost on the audience for whom the event was originally intended.

Sadly, it is very possible the actions of these few lost us votes on that referendum and I share this experience with everyone as a loud reminder that this is not the time for personal agendas. With so much on the line, this is no time to lose the plot.

For over twenty years buying and selling rental properties has been my jam. Like any business, there are two facets to real estate investing: money and people. The hardest lesson I had to learn was logic and common sense have to override sentiment. As the old saying goes: it’s not personal, it’s just business. The second hardest lesson is, when negotiating a deal, always be willing to walk away.

Our grievances with Ottawa predate us becoming a province. Neither Alberta nor Saskatchewan negotiated our way in to Confederation, we were colonized and told this is how it is going to be. One could argue that, decades later, Premier Lougheed agreed to the 1982 Constitution by signing it (interestingly, Quebec did not) and there is merit to that. Though it could also be argued that our Premier was strong armed more so than in agreement. He did not create the first iteration of the Alberta Bill of Rights along with the Heritage Trust Fund shortly thereafter for no reason.

The good news is there is a mechanism within the Constitution to renegotiate Confederation. Many Albertans are hopeful that our fellow provinces will come to the table, ready to collaborate and reach a new deal. One that includes less equalization, more provincial autonomy, and all-around freedom for every province to make their own decisions across the county. It does sound quite nice.

Looking at the map below, we see both the Senate seats (white numbers) and House of Commons seats (black numbers) in each province. To open up the Constitution we need seven provinces and 50% of the population to agree. Told we have friends and allies across the county, which ones can we confidently expect to meet us at the table to renegotiate a better deal with Alberta? And the Territories don’t count. 

Looking at the numbers, using logic and plain old common sense, two realities become obvious. The first is, Alberta does not have a lot of political power within Confederation. Even as a ‘western block’ there is no possibility of moving the needle. The second is, we do not have a lot of allies either. The eastern provinces are not going to willing to give up those seats in Parliament to make things fair and equitable for Alberta or any of our neighboring western provinces.  

With these facts in mind, and they are facts, not conjecture, let’s look at our greatest complaint. Here is a map showing the latest equalization payouts.

Though the intent is to make things ‘equal’, there is nothing equal about it. Especially when we learn that the Prime Minister who changed the equalization formula to include 50% of our resource revenues but not Quebec’s was Harper. And he did so for eastern votes.

In 1904, the year before we became a province, the Minister of the Interior, Sir Clifford Sifton was at a meeting in Winnipeg. It was there he said, “We desire, all patriotic Canadians desire, that the great trade of the Prairie shall go to enrich our own people in the East, to build up the factories and the workshops of Eastern Canada and contribute in every way to its prosperity.”

When Angela Tabak and I are giving this presentation, this is usually the part where we hear crickets. It is also the hardest because this is when our fellow Albertans realize that this is how Confederation was designed. For the East, it has always been about money. Our money. For us, it has always been about people. The fact that our own country purposely keeps Albertans under foot is a hard pill to swallow.

As more and more Albertans come to terms with the truth, the independence movement keeps growing. As a result, the vitriol coming at us from the East, particularly over these last several months, has been shocking. There is no question how they feel and what they think of us. Which confirms, sadly, that our fellow Canadians have no desire to negotiate any sort of ‘fair deal’. While it is hurtful, we need to keep our emotions in check and use logic and common sense to guide us. Looking at this from a business perspective, and we have to, Albertans are left with two options. Either we stay with the status quo and the great trade of the prairie continues to enrich the east or, we put our own people first, and walk away.

It is time to tell the rest of Canada it’s not personal, it’s just business.

Fellow Albertans, it’s time for a referendum on independence.